Approaches to reduce the estimated sample size in clinical trials – A checklist

The following approaches can be considered to reduce the estimated sample size in clinical trials:

  • Objective
    • Choose another objective, e.g.
      • Reduce objectives of study, e.g. phase 2 instead of phase 3, fewer primary/key secondary endpoints, descriptive instead of inferential
      • Change target concept, e.g. physical instead of psychological QOL
    • Operating characteristics:
      • Relax type 1 error
      • Relax type 2 error
      • Perform literature review and if expected treatment is uncertain use most optimistic parameter values (risky!)
  • Design
    • Select a more homogeneous target population (ie lower measurement error)
    • Increase treatment effect, e.g.
      • higher dose of test drug
      • control with less effect (e.g., placebo instead of active control)
    • Extend observation period (assuming increasing effect over time)
    • Reuse participants, e.g. cross-over design
    • Add repeated measurements, ie add more visits
    • Apply group-sequential designs
    • Apply sample size reestimation
    • Relax definition of protocol deviations
    • Select endpoint with lower measurement error
      • Replacing measure with another with higher reliability/sensitivity to change, e.g. introduce more levels on response scale, VAS instead of rating scale
      • Aggregating multiple measure into an endpoint, e.g. multi-item summary score, composite endpoint, multivariate endpoint (cf MANOVA, Principal Component)
      • Continuous endpoint instead of binary (responder) endpoint
  • Statistical analysis
    • Use parametric instead of non-parametric model
    • Use most distribution with best goodness-of-fit
    • Reduce parameters (df) in statistical model
    • Impute missing values (ie assume all patients are completers after imputation in sample size estimation, ie no dropout)
    • Repeated measures models (MMRM)
    • Include covariates (unexplained variation -> explained variation), e.g.
      • Standard (demographics, patient characteristics, disease characteristics)
      • Endpoint at baseline
      • Prognostic variables of placebo effect (cf Cognivia)
      • Prognostic variables of missingness
    • Select multiple testing procedure to optimize power
    • Bayesian analysis using external data (RWE) or expert elicitation